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Mortgage rates rise again as war pushes inflation
The average rate for 30-year home loans rose to 6.46% last week, according to Bankrate's national survey of lenders. That was up from 6.43% the previous week.
Mortgage rates are rising in part because inflation has returned. April’s consumer price index was up 3.8% from a year ago, the Labor Department said last week. That was the highest level in three years, and it’s well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target – leading to predictions that the central bank’s next move will be to raise rather than cut interest rates. While the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, it does set the overall tone.
“Mortgage rates will stay elevated until there is a verified peace agreement in Iran, and [last] week's inflation data makes that case even clearer,” says Nicole Rueth, senior vice president at CrossCountry Mortgage. “Markets are now pricing in a 30% probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end, and until oil stabilizes and the Iran conflict resolves, there is no data on the horizon that gives the bond market permission to move rates lower.”
Amid all the uncertainty in the broader economy, the spring homebuying season has been tepid at best. In April, home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, the National Association of Realtors reported. That rate was up slightly from March, but it was unchanged from April 2025.
To put that pace of sales in context, Americans typically bought 5 million homes a year before the pandemic, and annual volumes spiked to 6 million during the Covid housing boom.
Mortgage rates near 6.5% have acted as a drag on home sales, and 30-year rates seem unlikely to fall sharply in the near future.
“With the ongoing conflict in Iran driving oil prices higher, inflation will likely continue to spike. I expect all interest rates to move higher over the next week, and I expect mortgage rates to be no exception,” says Sean Salter, an associate professor of finance at Middle Tennessee State University.
Should rising mortgage rates affect your homebuying plans? Probably not. Homeownership is a long-term play, and rate movements are short-term events. Also, keep in mind that housing markets in the U.S. diverge widely. Texas and Florida are now buyer’s markets, but parts of the Northeast and Midwest remain strong seller’s markets.
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